Shadow Population

This article was sent to me yesterday and can be found here. This topic is relevant given the occupancy rate of our hotels, campgrounds, and camper trailers in use on a variety of properties.

Town sees "huge" growth in shadow population

By: ANDREW MENDLER   |  Posted: Tuesday, Aug 12, 2014 01:15 pm

Although the official census results only showed a one per cent growth in Bonnyville since 2012, Mayor Gene Sobolewski says the actual growth was around ten per cent.

“The ‘shadow population’ is very high and when you add that into it we have seen a substantial growth,” said Sobolewski. “We saw a ten per cent growth in the Town of Bonnyville in one year, that is huge.”

A “shadow population” includes residents who have been employed by a business in the region for a minimum of 30 days and are residents living in Bonnyville who have a permanent address elsewhere.

Bonnyville’s shadow population was right on the edge of being allowed to be included by the Provincial government, as Municipal Affairs only acknowledges shadow populations over ten per cent.

Sobolewski feels that the government needs to count the added population, as transient workers are huge in this region.

“The province is electing, through the way they do their calculations, that we are not allowed to include that additional population of people actually residing in the community. We need to have some discussions with our provincial counterparts because this is craziness,” said Sobolewksi. “We have to do some pushing on our end to make sure that the province recognizes that we have that additional population within our boundaries and that the additional population is having an impact on our services.”

Provincial grant funding is calculated on a per-person basis, so not having the “shadow population” included in the official census count is costing the town thousands of dollars in funding.

“You’ve got additional pressures on all of your infrastructure but you don’t receive funding because they are not being counted,” said Sobolewski. “An additional 10 per cent of your population is using an additional 10 per cent of your water, you’re treating an additional ten per cent of sewage, your roads are seeing that additional ten per cent of traffic. It all has an impact.”

According to Town CAO Mark Power, Bonnyville will be applying to have the shadow population counted during the next census.

“The Town will be applying to the Minister of Municipal Affairs to have the shadow population included as part of our next census, as 80 locations were identified in this year’s census with occupants that did not meet the Government’s residency requirements,” said Power. “These are residents who temporarily reside and work here, but whose permanent residence is elsewhere. We need to be able to include these people in our residency count so we can maximize grant funding for the Town of Bonnyville.”

Although the large shadow population doesn’t help the Town with funding, Sobolewski says it is overall a benefit to the region.

“Overall it is still a good thing because it shows very healthy growth in our region. We are trying very hard to get more apartments built and more multi-family residential units developed and get that construction occurring so we can see numbers jump on the permanent residency side as well.”

Bonnyville’s official census results only saw the Town jump 84 people from 2012 to 2014, going from 6,837 to 6,921.