FCM Keynote Speaker: Bruce Anderson of Abacus Data

Bruce Anderson of Abacus Data, a regular in the Globe and Mail and CBC provided us with a statistical understanding of the current political climate.

Bruce Anderson, Abacus Data. June 7, 2015

• National Politics Local Implications
• Things aren't awful - we are risk adverse is one case
• You're better off with Harper, CPC message 
• We can do better tomorrow, opposition message 
• Time for something different, opposition message  
• Direction of Canada
• Generally we are in right direction: gap has closed from 29 points to 14 - now some uncertainty
• Time for change,
• Most say yes
• New appetite for change
• Best not to change has dropped 15 points, concern for CPC
• NDP is leader for change, people now prefer NDP for change
• Current intention is softening of CPC and Liberal while improvements for NDP
• Firmness of voting intention, 75% are unsure
• CPC has most firmness at 37%
• Could change is a tie
• Slight preference LPC lead
• Don't know how they'll vote is 3 way tie
• Core vote
• N 16%
• L 10%
• C 15% - peak at 38%
• Would consider
• N 56%
• L 51%
• C 45%
• Volatile election
• Top issues for Canada
• Taxes -
• not defining issue, always steady number
• Not a motivating issue
• Incomes
• New concern
• Safety/terrorism
• Significant drop
• Led to drop for CPC because of reduced deficit
• Who Voters Predict to Win
• L 26%
• C 24%
• N 15%
• All of these numbers have changed significantly in last year.
•  NDP who have moved up significantly while CPC and LPC have dropped
• Fixed election dates has lot of unexpected outcomes
• Is it about the economy?
• More than half think it is okay
• 44% say it is poor
• 30% blame government
• Want change for change in ideas
• Economy isn't a driver of political choice
• Question of change and leadership - good for opposition and bad for CPC
• Debates
• More debates is likely
• 64% say networks should host
• 72% say PM should change is name

• Senate/Duffy
• Big cloud is forecasting bad weather
• Local Issues National Implications
• 40% think their community is  better than average
• Generally people like where they live and change might be good
• 87% of people like their quality of life
• 65% want to improve their quality of life
• Local priorities (taxes not an issue nationally)
• Economic
• Roads
• Hardship
• Safety
• Environment       




Bruce Anderson, Abacus Data. June 7, 2015

• Best parties on issues
• Economy CPC



Bruce Anderson, Abacus Data. June 7, 2015



• Conclusion
• Election a toss up
• Instinct for change is up but fear of change matters
• Parties will be tested and retested
• A conservative electorate
• Quality of life is key and economy enables it
• Both are experienced locally more than nationally
• Different markets, different aspirations, increasing leverage
• A national message which resonate locally
• Hearts and minds battle
• Aspirations
• What might work
• A better future
• Bigger market for hope

compared to

• Realities
• What might fail
• Costs/risks

The election may may be won based on if the electorates is hopeful or fearful